Everything is impermanent: SPX

Showing posts with label SPX. Show all posts

Sunday, January 29, 2012

DXY, SPX. Inverse relationship will be back

I expect inverse relationship to be respected this time like it did in end of October.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Warren Buffet's IBM will be shortable very soon

I will short it near 200.

Friday, October 14, 2011

SPX Interim Top at 1257-60 area

11/14/11, 11:14 PM CST

I checked all charts one more time. All Indexes show that a top is definitely close and I am not sure about 1307 (78.6% retracement) by looking st SPX chart but $DXY chart is very clear. It has to go down to test 75.424 (61.8% retracement), so I will be watching that very closely. VIX chart is very clear too. It has to test 16-17 area, however short term VIX is very close to a bounce.

here is where I will short indexes/related ETFs
SPX:- 1257.58
$DJI:- 11,931
COMP:- 2761.73
RUT:- 766.63
OEX:- 564.31

Monday, August 15, 2011

Here is why I am bullish on SPX

Commodity Currencies

Aud/usd is headed up to test 1.08

Usd/Cad is headed down to test .9535

Safe Haven currencies

CHF will loose more against Usd, Eur, Gbp, Jpy, Aud and Nzd

Eur/Jpy is headed up to test 115.6

Gbp/jpy is headed up to test 129.68

Cad/Jpy is headed up to test 83.2

Aud/Jpy is headed up to test 86

Nzd/Jpy is headed up to test 66

Bond Futures

/ZB is headed down to test 125'2

/ZN is headed down to test 122'3

World Excluding USA

ACWX is headed up to test 45.1

Emerging Markets

EEM is headed up to test 46 area.

Volatility/Fear index

VIX is headed down to test 14

Oil

/CL is headed up to test 102 area.

My target for SPX is 1340-1350 area

Thursday, August 11, 2011

SPX-Target-1360

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Bigger channel view but target is still 1375 area

Friday, August 5, 2011

SPX-Target-1375 and fib levels

- I still expect SPX to come back in that channel and test 1370.

- I am still long 100% BUT I admit that I went in too early, should have looked at NDX which had not come down like other indexes had. Anyways, learned a lesson for the future.

Note, I am not a fib expert but got encouraged by Hobotrader (he is on DISQUS) to look at fibs.

- I am betting that VIX will come down to 13.5 area, so we may/will/should have more upside on SPX than 1370 that means we go all the way to 14xx. We'll see when we get to those levels.

Friday, July 29, 2011

SPX-Target-1375

First target is 1355.

I am long SPX fund 75% at this moment in my 401-k. COMP and NDX have not reached my buy levels yet.

Monday, July 18, 2011

SPX-Target-1375

EDITed on 7/23/11: 1345 target achieved but I don't see 1375 test signal anymore.

First target will be 1345 area.

I went 100% long in my 401-k today in SPX fund.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Nzd/Jpy tells me Sell SPX

Xxx/Jpy pairs are risk-off, risk-on pairs. Right now, Nzd/Jpy is showing Risk-on, topped out on my channel and looking at its correlation in respect to Nzd/Jpy channel, it is telling me to get out of stocks.

Note, Eur/Jpy is already in downtrend and Chf/Jpy is topped out.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

SPX to test 1295-1300 area before 1370

I will go long at 1295-1300 area.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Moving 100% back from SPX and ACWX to Stable funds

My IT Target for RUT is 870 and/or SPX is 1375. RUT, OEX is ST over bought right now. I expect RUT to test back to 800. So, I will be moving back 50% of my 401k from SPX fund back to Stable fund. Rest 50% will stay in International fund but ACWX will enter overbought ST area soon if market goes up on Tuesday as well.

I had gone 100% long in my 401-k on June 6th per my post: http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx-dji-comp-and-rut-upside-targets.html when SPX closed that day at 1286

EDIT: SPX should test back 1295 area.

EDIT: Moved 100% back in to stable fund because even ACWX entered ST overbought area.